REASON FOR LOS ANGELES RAMS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING TIPS
Both teams are going to have to cancel their flights to Mexico now that the NFL has moved this game back to Los Angeles. This Monday night matchup was originally supposed to be played in Mexico City, but players on both sides threatened to not suit up because of the dreadful condition of the Estadio Azteca. The pitch there has been busy as of late, hosting multiple soccer matches and even some concerts so it is far from pristine. The Rams are certainly happy that they get their true home game back, but Kansas City shouldn’t be too worried as the Los Angeles fans aren’t exactly rowdy.
But they did have good cause to be excited this weekend as their Rams took down the division rival Seahawks by a score of 36-31. LA’s offense was clicking as RB Todd Gurley averaged over 7 yards per carry and QB Jared Goff threw for over 300 yards and two scores while completing 28 of his 39 passes. There was some bad news that arose, however, as WR Cooper Kupp ended up tearing his ACL mid-game. This is a devastating blow for the Rams, who will now be without one of the better slot receivers in football. They still have plenty of ways to hurt you offensively, but its time for other wideouts to step out to help balance the workload of Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods.
The Chiefs come into this one with some injury concerns as well. C Mitch Morse and LB Justin Houston are both listed as questionable and it seems that S Eric Berry won’t play yet again. It certainly didn’t hurt this last week as they beat the Cardinals by a score of 26-14, but the game was actually close for a good amount of the second half until the Chiefs pulled away. It was a quiet day on the ground for RB Kareem Hunt, but WR Tyreek Hill made up for the slack by hauling in 117 yards and 2 TDs on 7 catches. QB Patrick Mahomes played well as usual, but the offense did seem a little flat so they will have to fine tune it up before travelling out to the West Coast this weekend.
All in all, we think this out will be a shootout between the top 2 offenses in the NFL. The Chiefs come in as the#1 ranked DVOA offense in football while the Rams follow at #2. And on the other side of the ball, both teams have been struggling mightily on defense especially in the secondary.
With all of this in mind, we see both teams scoring in the 30s so we recommend taking the over on the points total even at its historic high. This is the highest over/under total ever, but its well warranted given the speed and efficiency that these offenses operate at. Both defenses do not have enough talent in the secondary to slow down the opposing offenses and both offensive lines have been doing a good job at pass protection so both pass rushes shouldn’t have too much of an impact either.
The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 8 of their 10 games and their defense has struggled against great opposition like the Patriots (who scored 43), the Steelers (who scored 37), and the Chargers (who scored 28). The Rams have scored at least 30 in 8 of their 10 games as well, but their defense has been even worse as of late, giving up 31, 45, and 27 in their past 3 games. Both teams should move the ball with ease especially against defenses that haven’t shown much resistance this season.
In terms of the spread, we like taking the field goal and the hook with the Chiefs. Kansas City’s offense has been a revelation this season and has the highest DVOA offensive ranking by far. In general, Kansas City has a more explosive offense than LA and its offensive creativity is off the charts. Yes, the Rams have great talents with RB Todd Gurley and WR Brandin Cooks but the Chiefs have the more talented overall group with Hunt, Kelce, Hill, and Watkins. QB Patrick Mahomes has a wider skillset than Rams QB Jared Goff, so we think the Chiefs’ offense will outperform the Rams’ offense and at the least keep them in the game. Both defenses have been horrible, so we think the game will come down to which offense messes up first, and we have our money on it being the Rams.
Lastly, we like the value on Kansas City money line given that they are arguably better than the Rams. They have the better offense and more coaching experience, and they’ve also excelled on the road under HC Andy Reid with a 32-16 ATS record in their away games since 2013.